Comments on Current Affairs

Financial markets are fuelled by fear and greed. Essentially, greed drives prices up … and fear causes them to fall.   The investor’s emotional cycle:

The global outbreak of coronavirus or Covid-19, coupled with the sharp fall in oil prices, has created immense fear in the global financial markets. These are exogenous shocks which are difficult to anticipate.

This year’s Budget Speech was arguably one of the most anticipated (and closely watched) in recent history. So, what stood out – and what should savvy investors know about it? 

To begin with, Finance Minister Tito Mboweni surprised markets and promised to slash the sprawling public-sector wage bill.

Despite a volatile year, 2019 ended on a high note for global equities as a result of:

• Firm Phase 1 trade agreement between the US and China;
• A decisive Tory victory in the UK, which paved the way for a less uncertain Brexit; and
• A backdrop of easy monetary policy.

For market watchers and investors, the biggest surprise of 2019 was arguably the generally good performance of global equities. Overall, global equity prices were supported by the accommodative stance of monetary authorities. Also, interest rates were kept low – and even cut – in some geographical jurisdictions.

On the local front, the SA Reserve bank (SARB) cut the repo rate by 25bps to 6.5% in July. It was left unchanged in September.  The domestic economy remains weak.

Average inflation was 4.3%, which was below the mid-point of the SARB target range.  

The Rand traded in a volatile range – from a low of USD/ZAR 13.97 to a weakest level of USD/ZAR 15.50 in mid-August.