Why Recession Fears Are Rising in the US
The appearance of a yield curve inversion has market watchers spooked…
Over the past few months, there has been a great deal of anxious chatter about the possibility of a recession in the US. Arguably, much of this fear stems from what is known as the ‘yield curve inversion’. Historically, yield curve inversions foreshadow a recession.
The Lighter Side of Investing with Archie
Archie has a new designer collar!
As many analysts had expected, economic data has revealed that SA’s unemployment rate climbed to an all-time high of 29% in the second quarter of 2019.
On a more positive note, however, retail sales growth beat expectations for a second straight month in May. Retail sales are likely to get a further boost from the SA Reserve Bank, which cut the repo rate by 0.25% in July.
No wonder then, that Archie is splashing out on the high street!
Quarterly Economic Review: Us/China Trade Dispute Weighs Heavily on Outlook
The broader, global view…
- The ongoing and often vicious trade dispute between the US and China has led to a material slowdown in global trade during the first half of 2019;
- Major Central banks, in particular the US Federal Reserve (FED) and the European Central Bank (ECB) have indicated that they will probably provide additional stimulus during the second half of the year to help offset some of the weaknesses caused by the slowdown in global trade;
- South Africa has not been immune to the negative effects of the trade disputes and export performance in 2019 has been adversely affected by the slowdown
The Lighter Side of Investing with Archie
Climate Change Controversy Dominates G20
While Archie shivers miserably with cold in Johannesburg, record high temperatures in Europe are again raising concerns about climate change.
Indeed, although trade has been the main focus of this year’s G20, the thorniest issue has been climate change – and what to do about it.
Following prolonged debates, the G20 eventually met French President Emmanuel Macron’s demand for a strong reference to the Paris Agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions –and also averted the threat of President Trump convincing Turkey and Brazil to join him in withdrawing from the Paris Agreement.
However, a statement of US objections was included….“The United States reiterates its decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement because it disadvantages American workers and taxpayers”.
The Lighter Side of Investing with Archie
With all this talk about trade wars and tariffs, Archie is concerned that he will not be getting any more toys…
There is still no clear sign of a de-escalation of US-China trade tension. To the dismay of many leaders, President Trump is still defending his tariff strategy. On the bright side, Jay Powell, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, has signaled that the Central Bank is ready to cut interest rates if trade wars do hit the world economy. Trump is claiming that the Chinese will pay for the tariffs – which remains a highly disputed and controversial assertion. In fact, companies are expected to pass the extra costs onto the consumer.
No wonder then, that Archie is suffering from mild bouts of Trump-related anxiety.
Returning to the Basics of Savvy Investing
With so much negativity in the news of late, coupled with an election year, investors have understandably been jittery. A cautious investment environment – with many unsure of the best strategy to pursue, has reflected this sentiment. With this in mind, now is a good time to revisit the basics of smart, long term investing.
Silver Lining for Distressed Investors: ‘sow the Seeds’ Now for Future Returns
In a socio economic environment characterised by volatility and deep-seated uncertainty, local investors are understandably spooked. Coupled with three years of poor returns from shares and listed property, many investors are (naturally) questioning why they should not cut their losses and switch to cash. This anxiety was exacerbated following the worst December for US equities since the Great Depression. Yet for savvy investors, there is always a silver lining to market dips.
Let’s take a closer look at the trends…
Looking Back: What Did the 4th Quarter of 2018 Hold for Investors?
For local investors, December capped an incredibly challenging year. It was the first time in many years that all major global asset classes produced a negative real return. Notably, emerging markets seemed to bear the brunt of the risk-off environment throughout the year – which meant that it was another very disappointing year for investors on the JSE. Tellingly, the FTSE JSE All Share Index closed 2018 with a negative total return of -9.08%.
